Gavin Ritchie
IT Director
Gavin spent his previous career in software development and database design in a variety of employed and independent roles. Development activities for Life Insurance systems proved a launching pad to a collaboration with Stephen Richards, and the Longevitas application suite was born. Alongside steering the IT function, Gavin is the primary developer for database, Java and web-related technologies.
Articles written by Gavin Ritchie
Boundless confidence?
We've talked repeatedly about a key advantage of statistical models over deterministic ones — specifically, that they provide confidence intervals in addition to a best estimate.
A tale of three cities
Given my birthplace, I have a more than casual interest in the causes of excess mortality experienced by Scots beyond that explicable by deprivation alone.
Remembrance of things past
With all due respect to Marcel Proust, involuntary memory isn't something I particularly worry about. Now, involuntary forgetting on the other hand, that is something I'll admit to, and I'm fairly sure I'm not alone.
Herding experts
Experts can come in for a lot of criticism, but they have their uses. After all, with no heads above those parapets, humanity would neither see so far nor have enough target practice.
Parallel (Va)R
One of our services, the Projections Toolkit, is a collaboration with Heriot-Watt University. Implementing stochastic projections can be a tricky business, so it is good to have the right people on the job.
Competitive eating
I've previously suggested parallel processing might have a touch of the infernal about it, and further evidence might be how it allows us to usefully indulge in one of the seven deadly sins, that of gluttony.
Extracting the (data) value
Risk management is about properly understanding your risk factors and managing accordingly. In a modern actuarial context, this is about a lot more than a simple comparison against a standard table.
All bases covered
It is fairly obvious by now that we are strong advocates for stochastic projection models. Such models crucially provide a basis with two components - a best-estimate force of mortality by age and year, and matching standard error values for the same 2D range.
Steady as she goes
If you'll forgive the nautical metaphor, forecasting longevity over the past few decades has proven to be anything but plain sailing. Those plotting a course with unshakable certainty have usually ended up storm-tossed and floating in a barrel.
Special assignment
We talked previously about the use of user-defined validation rules to clean up specific data artefacts you sometimes find in portfolio data. One question came up recently about modelling bespoke benefit bands, and this can also benefit from user-defined rules.