Information Matrix
Filter
Posts feedWeighing the evidence
We've previously discussed the significant challenges involved in forecasting mortality by cause of death. Needless to say it isn't any easier to predict the impact of trends in lifestyle factors that drive those causes.
Back(test) to the future
Stochastic projections of future mortality are increasingly used not just to set future best-estimates, but also to inform on stress tests such as for ICAs in the UK. By the time the Solvency II regime comes into force, I expect most major insurers across the EU will be using stochastic models for mortality projections (if they are not already doing so).