Information Matrix

Behavioural risk factors such as smoking and excessive alcohol consumption are significant drivers of mortality and morbidity.

The story of Jeanne Calment, as the oldest verified human, represents an intriguing case for longevity practitioners, and serves as something of a cautionary tale for those in the annuity and pensions space.

We've previously discussed the significant challenges involved in forecasting mortality by cause of death. Needless to say it isn't any easier to predict the impact of trends in lifestyle factors that drive those causes.

One interesting aspect of Scottish devolution is the different path charted in health policy.  Residents of Scotland have long had a shorter life expectancy than other parts of the United Kingdom, which is partly a function of greater smoking prevalence and poorer diet (amongst other deleterious health behaviours).

Socio-economic differentials in life expectancy have a long history in the United Kingdom. A large part of this over the last few decades has been stark differences in smoking rates — people of a high socio-economic status are much less likely to smoke, resulting in longer life expectancy.

An important concept is demography is the ecological fallacy.  This is where aggregate data for a group are used to draw erroneous inferences about individuals belonging to the group. 

Amongst its other claims to fame, Scotland produced one of the earliest prominent anti-smoking campaigners — our very own King James VI was an early opponent of tobacco consumption and smoking

In an earlier post we also showed how the U.K. was top of the obesity league amongst major EU nations.   Happily, the U.K. is top of a more constructive EU league table, namely the (lack of) affordability of cigarettes.

In recent years insurers have looked to making better use of the data they already have. The appeal is simple: if you have already collected the data, then it is like leaving money on the table if it is not being exploited to the full.