Stephen Richards
Managing Director
Articles written by Stephen Richards
How much data do you need?
We have written before about how survival models make better use of available data.
Lost cause?
Previously I wrote about how mortality rates by cause of death vary by deprivation index (and, by implication, socio-economic group). This substantially complicates any attempt to use cause-of-death data to make projections of mortality for annuity portfolios and defined-benefit pension schemes.
Developments in the management of annuity business
Last night an paper on the management of annuities was presented to the Faculty of Actuaries in Edinburgh.
Boxing clever
Boxing Clever
The cost of uncertainty
In an earlier blog I wrote about how stochastic volatility in run-off increases with age. This applies when you exactly know (or think you know) the current and future mortality rates.
Getting used to Solvency II
Insurers and reinsurers throughout the EU are facing up to the implementation of Solvency II, a radical overhaul of regulatory standards for insurance business. Recently we explored how much Solvency II demands stochastic models.
Does Solvency II demand stochastic models?
Solvency II is a major overhaul of the reserving rules for insurers throughout the European Union. An important consideration for annuity writers is how it will relate to longevity trend risk.
Health of the nation
Geodemographic profiles use addresses or postcodes to classify people into groups which are homogeneous with respect to variables like income, housing tenure and life stage. The original purpose of geodemographic profiles was to improve targeting for marketing purposes.
Lost in translation
Actuaries have a long-standing habit of using different terminology to statisticians. This page lists some common terms used by actuaries in mortality work and their "translation" for a non-actuarial audience. The terms and notation are those used by actuaries in the UK, but in every country I have visited the local actuaries have used similar notation.
Table 1. Common actuarial terms and their definition for statisticians.
Simulation and survival
In an earlier post we discussed how a survival model was directly equivalent to assuming future lifetime was a random variable. One consequence of this is that survival models make it quick and simple to simulate a policyholder's future lifetime for the purposes of ICAs and Solvency II.