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Vampiric victories

A Halloween-themed blog for the spooky season perhaps, but it isn't quite as off-topic as it first appears.  In legend, the vampire sought immortality through blood, whether drinking it or — reputedly in the case of Countess Elizabeth Báthory — bathing in it.
Written by: Gavin RitchieTags: longevity, blood, centenarians, Halloween

Reviewing forecasts

When making projections and forecasts, it can be instructive to compare them with what actually happened. In December 2002 the CMI published projections of mortality improvements that incorporated the so-called "cohort effect" (CMIB, 2002). These projections were in use by life offices and pension schemes in the United Kingdom from 2003 onwards.

Written by: Stephen RichardsTags: cohort effect, mortality projections, mortality improvements

Jeanne Calment's secret?

The story of Jeanne Calment, as the oldest verified human, represents an intriguing case for longevity practitioners, and serves as something of a cautionary tale for those in the annuity and pensions space.
Written by: Gavin RitchieTags: longevity, research, smoking, centenarians

Back to the future with Whittaker smoothing

Many actuaries will be familiar with Whittaker smoothing (1923) but few will be aware of the close connection between this early method and the method of P-splines.
Written by: Iain CurrieTags: Whittaker smoothing, splines, P-splines, penalty function

A shaky foundation?

As with anything that must combine reliable data with hard maths and sound judgement, forecasting mortality is difficult.
Written by: Gavin RitchieTags: cause of death, autopsy

Forecasting with penalty functions - Part III

This is the last of my three blogs on forecasting with penalties. I discussed the 1-d case in the first blog and the 2-d case in the second. Here we discuss some of the properties of 2-d forecasting. Some readers may find some of my remarks surprising, even paradoxical.

Written by: Iain CurrieTags: forecasting, splines, P-splines, penalty function, mortality crossover

Picking a winner

So what will the winner of the battle of the UK General Election be able to tell us about projection modelling? I'm not talking about the parties who will gain a share of power after May 7th, but which of the polling organisations will most closely forecast the results.
Written by: Ross AinslieTags: mortality projections, model risk

The shock we saw coming?

The impact of a mortality shock is by definition hard to predict. We don't know with certainty if or when a shock might occur, or what effects it might have on mortality in the years that follow.
Written by: Gavin RitchieTags: mortality shocks, AMR, antibiotics

Forecasting with penalty functions - Part II

Our first blog in this series of three looked at forecasting log mortality with penalties in one dimension, i.e. forecasting with data for a single age. We now look at the same problem, but in two dimensions. Figure 1 shows our data. We see an irregular surface sitting on top of the age-year plane. Just as in the 1-d case, we see an underlying smooth surface, and it is this surface that we wish both to estimate and to forecast.

Written by: Iain CurrieTags: forecasting, splines, P-splines, penalty function, mortality crossover

Weighing the evidence

We've previously discussed the significant challenges involved in forecasting mortality by cause of death. Needless to say it isn't any easier to predict the impact of trends in lifestyle factors that drive those causes.
Written by: Gavin RitchieTags: obesity, mortality improvements, smoking, back-test