Information Matrix

Trends in cause of death can be an instructive way of looking at past mortality, although we have previously seen that we have to be very careful that an apparent "trend" is not due to changes in recording.  Leaving aside the problems of shifting classification over time, what of the categories themselves?

When projecting mortality rates it is common for people to ask what sort of changes in causes of death might be required to achieve a particular scenario.  Often one is asked to posit what causes of death have to be "eliminated", and the results can lead to the conclusion that a particular projection is unlikely and therefore too prudent.

Previously I wrote about how mortality rates by cause of death vary by deprivation index (and, by implication, socio-economic group). This substantially complicates any attempt to use cause-of-death data to make projections of mortality for annuity portfolios and defined-benefit pension schemes.

Last night an paper on the management of annuities was presented to the Faculty of Actuaries in Edinburgh.

Examining past trends in cause of death can be very instructive.  However, in some quarters it has become popular to try to extrapolate trends in causes of death to create a forecast of future mortality rates.

 Every good statistician knows that correlation does not imply causation.  Just because two things appear linked does not mean they are. However, with historical data we often don't have the luxury of carrying out controlled, scientific experiments to see if A really does cause B.