Gavin Ritchie
Gavin spent his previous career in software development and database design in a variety of employed and independent roles. Development activities for Life Insurance systems proved a launching pad to a collaboration with Stephen Richards, and the Longevitas application suite was born. Alongside steering the IT function, Gavin is the primary developer for database, Java and web-related technologies.
Articles written by Gavin Ritchie
Inexplicable, Say I
Stephen recently questioned whether the hype around AI models for Life Insurance might be a case of The Emperor's New Clothes. In this blog we discuss an important point of difference: whereas in the fable, a youth reveals the expensive "invisible" new clothes have no substance at all, in our scenario, we find precisely the opposite. AI models utilising machine learning are, far from being see-through, simply not transparent enough.
Double or Quits?
More than a decade ago, we first posted on public health interventions proposed or implemented by the Scottish Government. A key focus area from those initiatives, alcohol mortality, has recently reported status, and the news does not seem encouraging. Despite the introduction of a minimum unit price (MUP) for alcohol in 2018, Scottish alcohol deaths reached a new high in 2024.
Actively Beneficial?
How should we describe a lifestyle change that doubles our likelihood of suffering a major traffic accident? Oddly, evidence from Scotland suggests the answer is "worth making". Let me explain.
Like Mother, Like Daughter
Golden Brown
Unpoking the bear
Turning Back The Clock
Reheating a Cold Case
In criminal investigation, it is well known that passing time obscures the facts, making what happened more difficult to discern. Eventually, the case turns cold - unlikely to be solved unless we discover new evidence. In some ways for over a century, epidemiologists have been dealing with just such a cold case, picking through the rubble of the 1918 Influenza pandemic and trying to make sense of what they find. But as we will see, debate continues in a number of areas.
Claims and Consequences
This blog discusses misinformation - including deliberate disinformation - during the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. I won't link directly to anti-vaccine content to avoid adding search-engine credibility to material best left unfound.
No Thanks for the Memory
That there is "no substitute for experience" is a truism, and one that is very tempting to apply wholesale to human immunity. Indeed, we previously touched upon an particular feature of the 1918 Spanish Flu outbreak, the so-called "W-shaped" mortality impact resulting in disproportionate fatalities amongst younger adults in the 20-40 range.