Version 2.7.5 of the Projections Toolkit

Publication Date:
Services: Projections Toolkit

Longevitas Ltd is pleased to announce the production release of v2.7.5 of the Projections Toolkit. This version contains powerful productivity and ease-of-use features including:

2.7.5 update

  • We have added a new option for handling parameter trend risk in ARIMA forecasts, based on the paper by Kleinow & Richards (2016).
  • Sample paths, and thus VaR calculations, have been enabled for ARIMA (p,2,q) models.
  • Additional knot positioning options have been added to allow preservation of knot positions after adding up to five years of data.
  • The Projections Explorer template now offers the facility to switch between various methods of numerical approximation.
  • Random number generation features including per operation RNG seed modification and exposure of Mersenne Twister RNG option.
  • Customers can now control the application interface timezone used for timestamp display.
  • Enhanced documentation, Excel templates and PDF reports in a variety of areas.
  • A number of fixes and handling improvements.
2.7.3 update
  • Model M7 (quadratic age function with cohort terms) has been added to the Projections toolkit.
  • The Lee-Carter family has been extended with a smoothed-alpha variant.
  • The Simpson's 3/8 rule is now available for calculation of illustrative annuity factors and life expectancies.
  • Operation configuration captured at submission rather than upon execution. This is particulary helpful when scheduling multiple tasks beyond licensed concurrency limits.
  • Configurable selection from a set of peer-reviewed Lee-Carter constraint systems.
  • Smoothing algorithm enhancements including control over upper and lower smoothing parameter boundaries.
  • The ability to apply ARIMA search space options for p and q to the ARIMA model for gamma in APC, M6 and M7.
  • Enhanced documentation, Excel templates and PDF reports in a variety of areas.
  • A number of fixes and handling improvements.
2.7.1 update
  • Model M6 (CBD with cohort terms) has been added to the Projections toolkit.
  • The Age-Period model in Original, Gompertz and Smooth variants has been added.
  • The method of equivalent constant annual improvement is now implemented in the Projection Explorer.
  • Support for DSV/semicolon-delimited and comma-decimal separator file uploads.
  • Enhanced Excel templates and PDF reports in a variety of areas.
  • A number of fixes and handling improvements.
2.7.0 update
  • A fully updated hardware and software platform incorporating improved scalability and resilience features.
  • Concurrent scheduling of operations on a single population.
  • Built-in model-extract transforms projection XML output into accessible Excel and CSV formats.
  • User-specified discount factors as an alternative to fixed interest rates and yield curves.
  • QIS5-style shock implemented in Excel Projection Explorer.
  • Additional sample path output formats
  • Enhanced Excel templates and PDF reports in a variety of areas.
  • A number of fixes and handling improvements.
2.4.x update
  • Parallel Value-at-risk (VaR) for dedicated servers vastly improves run-times for slower models and larger simulation counts.
  • Non-reproducible sample paths option allows additional ways to explore volatility and trend risk.
  • Active audit includes improved selection features and the ability to link directly from the audit trail to the operations or files of interest.
  • File visibility and one-click navigation added to every file related screen.
  • Integrated helpdesk reporting, capturing application context.
  • Enhanced Excel templates and PDF reports in a variety of areas.
  • A number of fixes and handling improvements.
2.3.x update
  • Unlimited key ages for projections and Value-at-risk (VaR).
  • Value-at-risk (VaR) enhancements for model robustness checking.
  • The Toolkit now supports ARIMA models with a non-zero mean.
  • 2D Basis benchmarking from piggyback projections.
  • A new quantile report for analysing the results of VaR operations.
  • Enhanced Excel templates in a variety of areas.
  • Additional authentication settings to increase control on a per-license basis
2.2.x update
  • The introduction of yield curves as an alternative to constant interest rates. Yield-curve models supported include interpolation, penalised splines, Dobbie-Wilkie, Nelson-Siegel and Svensson.
  • The introduction of the Age-Period-Cohort (APC or M3) family of projection models, including the original model plus two alternatives for smoothing the age parameters: a Gompertz age function and a P-spline-smoothed age function.
  • The introduction of a one-year value-at-risk (VaR) operation to explore model stability and to put longevity risk into a one-year time horizon for Solvency II.
  • Excel-based benchmarking of your choice of deterministic projection basis against a stochastic model.
  • Fully-flexible observation weighting.
  • Large-print technical guides for use on smaller devices such as e-Readers, smartphones and tablets (for example, Amazon's Kindle).
  • Enhanced PDF reports including including hotlinked table of contents and dynamic bibliography.
  • Enhanced file sharing with new restricted and standard sharing modes, and the ability to return a file share when complete.
  • Process control for multiple running operations per file.
  • SMS provider rotation for multiple notifications within a short time period to minimise dependence on a single provider.
2.1.x update
  • Mass calculation of annuity factors and life expectancies, including Excel® spreadsheets to integrate with your own tools.
  • Targetting the number of degrees of freedom in a model as alternative option to minimizing the BIC.
  • Inclusion of a new Projections Toolkit Technical Guide explaining internals and theoretical underpinning for the projection system and models.
  • Annotation for sample paths to illustrate the derivation of their calculation.
  • Improved integration features for clients with access to Longevitas or mortalityrating.com.
  • Operation completion and password hint notifications now available by SMS in addition to — or instead of — e-mail.
  • Additional extended authentication settings including multiple fixed IP addresses and net masks.
2.0.x update
  • Ability to extend projected mortality rates by age
  • Introduction of the CBD5 family of models - P-spline and Gompertz variants
  • Graduation of standard tables using 1D P-spline age penalties
  • Two-factor authentication incorporating SMS passcode and fixed IP options
  • Validation and test facility for SMS numbers
  • Notifications at individual, organisation and server wide level
1.4.x update
  • Addition of sample paths for drift models
  • Addition of sample paths for ARIMA (p,1,q) models.
  • User control of knot positioning in models using splines for smoothing.
  • User control of optimisation method, including a grid search based on simulated annealing for challenging functional shapes.
1.3.x update
  • Extension to Excel-based projection explorer to support more charts and a broader range of Excel versions
  • Extensions to upper projections limits and smoothing overrides
  • TAS-R information added to projections PDF report
  • Ability to reuse existing projection models and piggyback projections
  • Colour coding for large positive and negative residuals in Excel residuals downloads
1.2 update
  • An Excel-based projection explorer, including automatic calculation of reduction factors and improvement rates using your choice of ICA/Solvency II stress level.
  • Excel-formatted downloads including a multi-worksheet format for qx stress scenarios.
  • Changes to handling of over-dispersion, including addition of over-dispersion parameter to models in the smooth Lee-Carter family.
  • Generation of sample paths for smoothed models using penalty projections.
  • Addition of drift-model variants for time-series models in the Lee-Carter family.
  • Residual file download and large residual weighting.
1.1 update
  • 2D P-spline models extended to allow fitting of an overdispersion parameter, allowing for extra-Poisson variation caused by, for example, period effects or duplication
  • Addition of base mortality smoothing override to Lee-Carter Fully smoothed and Smooth alpha and beta (time-series) models
  • Minimum year boundary lowered to 1900 to support population data from wider number of territories
1.0 base release
  • A range of stochastic projection models supported to investigate model risk:
  • Extended Lee-Carter family - time series projections (Original, DDE, Gompertz, smooth alpha and beta)
  • Extended Lee-Carter family - penalty projections (Currie Richards 2009, Gompertz, Fully-smoothed)
  • 2D P-spline family - penalty projections (2D age-period, 2D age-cohort)
  • Projections against any age and year range selection to allow for straightforward back-testing
  • Piggyback models to investigate basis risk in smaller portfolios

About the Projections Toolkit

Insurers and pension schemes are under increasing pressure to understand the uncertainty over future mortality improvements.  An important tool for this is a stochastic projection model, which can be complicated to fit.  The Projections Toolkit makes it easy for an actuarial advisor to fit a wide variety of projection models to explore the uncertainties over future mortality.

The Projections Toolkit has particular application for life insurers and reinsurers under Solvency II in the EU.

Previous news

Version 2.7.5 of Longevitas

21 February 2016
Longevitas Ltd is pleased to announce the production release of v2.7.5 of its Longevitas risk-modelling software.

Paper on mis-estimation risk now available

05 February 2016
Stephen Richards will present a paper on mis-estimation risk at the sessional meeting of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in Edinburgh on 29th February 2016.