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Against a background of long-term mortality improvements it is understandable to expect that societal change and developments in health care will be agents of progress. Recent research from Princeton Professor of Economics Anne Case and Nobel prize-winning economist Angus Deaton jolts such complacency in the starkest way.
A chill wind
In a previous blogs I have looked at seasonal fluctuations in mortality, usually with lower mortality in summer and higher mortality in winter. The subject of excess winter deaths is back in the news, as the UK experienced heavy mortality in the winter of 2014/15, as demonstrated in Figure 1.
What — and when — is a 1:200 event?
The concept of a "one in two hundred" (1:200) event over a one-year time horizon is well established as a reserving standard for insurance in several territories: the ICA in the United Kingdom, the SST in Switzerland and the forthcoming Solvency II standard for the entire European Union.
Vampiric victories
A Halloween-themed blog for the spooky season perhaps, but it isn't quite as off-topic as it first appears. In legend, the vampire sought immortality through blood, whether drinking it or — reputedly in the case of Countess Elizabeth Báthory — bathing in it.
Reviewing forecasts
When making projections and forecasts, it can be instructive to compare them with what actually happened. In December 2002 the CMI published projections of mortality improvements that incorporated the so-called "cohort effect" (CMIB, 2002). These projections were in use by life offices and pension schemes in the United Kingdom from 2003 onwards.
Jeanne Calment's secret?
The story of Jeanne Calment, as the oldest verified human, represents an intriguing case for longevity practitioners, and serves as something of a cautionary tale for those in the annuity and pensions space.
Back to the future with Whittaker smoothing
Many actuaries will be familiar with Whittaker smoothing (1923) but few will be aware of the close connection between this early method and the method of P-splines.
A shaky foundation?
As with anything that must combine reliable data with hard maths and sound judgement, forecasting mortality is difficult.
Forecasting with penalty functions - Part III
This is the last of my three blogs on forecasting with penalties. I discussed the 1-d case in the first blog and the 2-d case in the second. Here we discuss some of the properties of 2-d forecasting. Some readers may find some of my remarks surprising, even paradoxical.
Picking a winner
So what will the winner of the battle of the UK General Election be able to tell us about projection modelling? I'm not talking about the parties who will gain a share of power after May 7th, but which of the polling organisations will most closely forecast the results.