COVID-19 mortality and sex
I recently looked at the progression of Covid-19 mortality risk with age. As with all-cause mortality, another risk factor for Covid-19 is biological sex. In Italy males account for 68.5% of Covid-19 deaths (ISS, 2020), an over-representation repeated in other countries' covid-19 mortality statistics. This is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Log-odds ratio for mortality of confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Italy by age and sex. Source: own calculations using data from ISS (2020).
Another way of looking at this is relative risk, as shown in Figure 2 (we exclude the rates below age 30 due to small numbers of deaths).
Figure 2. Ratio of male mortality rate to female for confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Italy by age. Source: own calculations using data from ISS (2020).
The excess depicted in Figure 3 is not the first time that males have shown much heavier mortality in response to viral infection: the same was true in the Spanish Influenza pandemic a century ago. Figure 2 also gives pause for younger males who are tempted to conclude from Figure 1 that their risk is low: in the age range 30–60 male mortality from Covid-19 is more than triple the rate for females. The current health advice therefore applies to everyone regardless of age or sex: keep your distance and wash your hands.
References:
Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) (2020) Epidemia COVID-19, Aggiornamento nazionale, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, 2nd April 2020.
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COVID-19 mortality and age
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The year 1825 was a significant one not only for actuaries but for the wider scientific community: Benjamin Gompertz published his landmark paper on the graduation of human mortality (Gompertz, 1825). There were at least three completely new ideas in his paper. First, he gave his famous law of mortality. To quote Gompertz:
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