The best available approximation to the truth
In my role as guest editor of the British Actuarial Journal, I wrote an editorial piece about how actuaries can assess the suitability (or otherwise) of models for projecting mortality rates. The editorial can be downloaded on the right; it covers various aspects of mortality-projection models including:
- the importance of asking questions,
- challenging assumptions and
- identifying unacknowledged correlations.
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Previous posts
Benchmarking VaR for longevity trend risk
I recently wrote about an objective approach to setting the value-at-risk capital for longevity trend risk. This approach is documented in Richards, Currie & Ritchie (2012), which was recently presented to a meeting of actuaries in Edinburgh.
Hitting the target, but missing the point
Targeting methods are popular in some areas for mortality forecasting. One well known current example is the CMI's model for forecasting mortality.
Comments
Stephen,
I rarely find that I can unequivocally agree with an editorial. It does not surprise me, however, that I entirely agree with your comments in the editorial - and have to admit that it served its real purpose, too, which was to make the reader curious and eager to read the Journal itself.
Good job!
Kai
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