Information Matrix

When projecting mortality rates it is common for people to ask what sort of changes in causes of death might be required to achieve a particular scenario.  Often one is asked to posit what causes of death have to be "eliminated", and the results can lead to the conclusion that a particular projection is unlikely and therefore too prudent.

Examining past trends in cause of death can be very instructive.  However, in some quarters it has become popular to try to extrapolate trends in causes of death to create a forecast of future mortality rates.