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The Emperor's New Clothes, Part I

There is emerging hype about the application of artificial intelligence (AI) to mortality analysis, specifically the use of machine learning via neural networks.  In this note I provide a counter-example that illustrates why the human element is an absolutely indispensable part of actuarial work, and why I think it always will be.

Written by: Stephen RichardsTags: machine learning, neural networks, data validation, data quality

The Mystery of the Non-fatal Deaths

In the course of a recent investigation, with my colleagues Dr Oytun Haçarız and Professor Torsten Kleinow, a key parameter was the mortality rate of persons suffering from Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM), an inherited heart disorder characterized by thickening of the left ventricular muscle wall.  It is quite rare, so precision is not to be expected, and indeed an annual mortality rate of 1% \((q_x=0.01)\), independent of age \(x\), is widely cited.  I

Written by: Angus MacdonaldTags: data quality, data validation

New year, new insights

Happy New Year to all our readers!

Written by: Stephen RichardsTags: supercentenarians, data quality, late-life mortality deceleration

Boundless confidence?

We've talked repeatedly about a key advantage of statistical models over deterministic ones — specifically, that they provide confidence intervals in addition to a best estimate.
Written by: Gavin RitchieTags: mortality, longevity, data quality

Shifting sands

In civil engineering, no building can be sounder than the foundation on which it rests.  A similar comment applies to statistical analysis, which is obviously limited by the quality of the underlying data. 
Written by: Stephen RichardsTags: cause of death, data quality, mortality projections