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Posts feedHow not to do postcode profiling
We have written extensively about how to use postcodes for mortality modelling. The best approach in the UK is to use so-called geodemographic profilers, which map postcodes to relatively homogeneous groups of households sharing certain socio-economic characteristics.
A basis point
In an earlier post I mentioned the advent of survivor forwards, or S-forwards, a derivative contract which could be used for hedging pension liabilities.
Between the lines
Actuaries make great use of so-called standard tables. These are annual probabilities at each whole age for males and females. However, often mortality rates are required at ages which are not whole numbers.
Shifting sands
In civil engineering, no building can be sounder than the foundation on which it rests. A similar comment applies to statistical analysis, which is obviously limited by the quality of the underlying data.
Keep taking the tablets
Earlier Gavin wrote about a number of mobile devices from which you could run Longevitas software services, including a Nokia telephone and an iPod Touch. This is not a result of specifically designing for these devices, but it is a handy benefit from following the open, published standards for web development.
The limits of limits
Is there a limit to life expectancy?
Seven questions for projections by cause of death
I have written several times about the challenges in creating mortality projections based on cause-of-death data. Those interested in the details can consult my recent paper published in a special edition of the British Actuarial Journal.
Caveat emptor
I wrote earlier about survivor forwards as a means of transferring longevity risk. One natural question for investors to ask is: what is the likelihood of loss exceeding a given amount?
Order, order!
Mortality improvements can be analysed in a number of ways. A common desire is to want to separate mortality improvements into components for period and cohort. However, this is much trickier than it seems, as we shall show here. In particular, the order in which calculations are performed can be very important.
Business benefits of statistical models
In a recent meeting I was asked by a reinsurer what the advantages were of using statistical models in his business. The reinsurer knew about the greater analytical power of survival models, but he wanted more.